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Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax: Vaccine Shares Are Again In Favor. Right here's Why – Trefis


Covid-19 vaccine shares have fared nicely over the past month. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) – two main Covid vaccine suppliers – have seen their inventory costs rise by about 37% and seven% respectively since early April, whereas Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), which is prone to start business deployment of its vaccine shortly, noticed its inventory achieve 33%. So what’s driving the surge in these vaccine shares?

Firstly, international Covid-19 circumstances have been trending considerably greater with day by day new circumstances standing at over 800k over the past week, pushed partly by infections in India and South America. That is probably inflicting an urgency to spice up vaccination applications. Though about 38% of U.S. adults have now obtained a minimum of one dose of Covid-19 photographs, per the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker, the worldwide rollout of vaccines has been a lot slower, with beneath 8% of the worldwide inhabitants vaccinated.

Furthermore, there’s a risk the Covid-19 vaccinations might be an ongoing course of, requiring periodic booster photographs, probably with new formulations, to guard towards new variants of the virus and probably diminishing immunity. Each Pfizer and Moderna are engaged on creating booster doses of their respective vaccines and this might imply that vaccine makers will see recurring revenues from what initially appeared like a one-off vaccine product. The U.Okay., for example, has ordered an extra 60 million doses of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine for booster photographs within the Fall.

Though vaccine competitors is mounting, Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax are prone to maintain their very own with their extremely efficient vaccines. Whereas China and Russia have been scaling up the manufacturing and distribution of their homegrown photographs, they face some notion points, given the best way that medical trials had been dealt with and in addition on account of the truth that they arrive from authoritarian states. Individually, vaccines from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) – that are seen as key to the worldwide vaccine drive – are being investigated for very uncommon, however probably deadly, unwanted effects of blood clots.

See our indicative theme of  Covid-19 Vaccine shares which incorporates U.S.-listed pharma and biotech firms. The theme is up 44% this yr.

[4/7/2021] Are Vaccine Shares Nonetheless Value Investing In?

Covid-19 vaccine shares have had a stable run, pushed by the urgency to finish the pandemic and the unprecedented velocity at which firms have developed extremely efficient vaccines. Our theme of Covid-19 Vaccine Shares – which incorporates Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)– is up by 22% yr up to now and by over 13x for the reason that finish of 2019. We’ve now reached the purpose within the cycle the place most main gamers (besides Novavax) are scaling up deliveries of their photographs. About 690 million Covid vaccine doses have been administered up to now worldwide, per the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. With vaccinations occurring at a price of about 16.3 million doses per day globally and most vaccines requiring two doses, there’s nonetheless a protracted strategy to go earlier than the worldwide inhabitants of near eight billion individuals is vaccinated.

So clearly vaccination applications are simply getting began primarily based on the bigger scheme of issues. Nevertheless, the markets are starting to look past the pandemic. With bond yields rising and the financial system persevering with to open up, traders have been rotating out of pandemic winners corresponding to vaccine and work at home names to extra cyclical and worth shares. For instance, Moderna and Novavax – each considered as a direct play on Covid-19 vaccines are down by about 28% and 44% respectively from their February highs. Furthermore, the Covid-19 vaccine market can be prone to get more and more aggressive as time goes on, as new gamers enter the fray and present gamers scale up capability. Pfizer, for example, says that it may scale up capability from two billion doses this yr to as a lot as three billion in 2022. Contemplating this, we expect that traders might want to consider these firms primarily based on the potential of their future pipelines, slightly than simply specializing in their Covid vaccines.

[1/29/2021] Novavax’s Vaccine May Be A Recreation Changer

Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) has stated that its Covid-19 shot is 89.3% efficient, primarily based on interim information from its section 3 medical trials performed within the U.Okay.  [] The corporate expects to file for emergency authorization with U.Okay. regulators within the coming months. Whereas the reported efficacy numbers appear to place the vaccine barely behind Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), who’ve rolled out vaccines which might be roughly 95% efficient, we expect the Novavax shot holds extra promise for a few causes. Firstly, Novavax’s two-dose shot has proven efficacy towards the brand new strains of the Coronavirus discovered within the U.Okay. and South Africa, making it the primary firm to show this in medical trials. So whereas the 89% determine seems to be barely decrease than Pfizer and Moderna’s reported outcomes, the Novavax shot is at 95.6% effectiveness towards the unique virus — proper in step with the 2 opponents. The shot also needs to be simpler to distribute, contemplating that it doesn’t have to be saved in super-cold temperatures, in contrast to Pfizer’s mRNA-based vaccine. Novavax’s vaccine can be prone to be extra fairly priced – a cope with the U.S. authorities noticed every dose priced at about $16, versus as a lot as $37 per dose for Moderna’s vaccine. Crucially, the corporate has additionally lined up a variety of manufacturing capability, collaborating with the world’s largest vaccine producer Serum Institute of India with plans to provide its vaccine at a price of two billion doses a yr ranging from mid-2021. See our updates beneath for extra particulars on the Novavax shot.

See our indicative theme of  Covid-19 Vaccine shares which incorporates U.S.-listed pharma and biotech firms. The theme is up about 4x over the past 2 years.

[1/27/2021] Novavax Updates

Novavax’s (NASDAQ: NVAX) experimental Covid-19 shot is being carefully watched, given some promising early-stage information and the corporate’s transfer to line up important manufacturing capability. Right here’s a fast overview of what has been occurring with Novavax inventory in latest weeks. Firstly, the corporate is seeking to elevate as a lot as $500 million in fairness, in a transfer that ought to enhance its liquidity place and assist fund its R&D spending. That is most likely a sensible transfer, as Novavax inventory is up virtually 15x over the past 12 months, with its market cap standing at about $8 billion. Novavax additionally has three efficacy/security research of its Covid-19 shot underway within the U.Okay, South Africa, and the U.S., with some preliminary efficacy information anticipated to return out in a couple of weeks. The corporate may very well be seeking to hedge its place earlier than the info readout. Individually, curiosity within the vaccine seems to be rising. Novavax has finalized an settlement with the Canadian authorities to provide as many as 76 million doses of its Covid-19 vaccine and there have additionally been stories that South Korea is in talks to purchase round 40 million doses of the Novavax vaccine. Novavax inventory has fared comparatively nicely yr up to now, rising by about 12% for the reason that starting of January. See our indicative theme of  Covid-19 Vaccine shares which incorporates U.S.-listed pharma and biotech firms. The theme is up about 4x over the past 2 years.

[1/4/2021] Why Did Novavax Inventory Decline 20% In December? 

Vaccine specialist Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) – which is seen as a key participant within the Covid-19 vaccine area – noticed its inventory value decline by about 20% over December. Listed below are a couple of attainable causes for the decline.

Covid-19 vaccines by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) obtained emergency approval from the U.S. FDA in December and inoculation drives have already begun within the U.Okay and the U.S. with these nations seeking to get their residents vaccinated as rapidly as attainable. As an example, the U.S. says that each American who desires a Covid-19 vaccine ought to have one by June. This probably implies that demand for the Novavax vaccine – which is simply prone to be obtainable, topic to approval, in Q1 2021 or later – might be considerably restricted within the nation. Whereas Novavax has provide agreements with the U.S. and Australia, the corporate may not see a lot upside in developed markets.

Novavax introduced that it was commencing section 3 medical trials for its novel coronavirus vaccine within the U.S. and Mexico final week. Whereas that is excellent news, contemplating that Novavax noticed a number of delays in beginning late-stage U.S. research amid manufacturing challenges, there are considerations whether or not the corporate will have the ability to meet its goal of signing up 30k volunteers when there are two extremely efficient vaccines already obtainable available in the market. For instance, potential volunteers may be involved that they’re given a placebo or that Novavax’s candidate may very well be much less protecting or even when their involvement within the trial may influence their capacity to take one other vaccine.

See our indicative theme on Covid-19 Vaccine shares for extra particulars on the efficiency of key U.S.-based firms engaged on  Covid-19 vaccines.

[Updated 12/23/2020] What Are The Dangers For Novavax?

Vaccine specialist Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) has seen its inventory value soar by roughly 25x yr up to now. Whereas a part of the good points was pushed by encouraging outcomes for section 3 trials of the corporate’s NanoFlu flu vaccine again in March, a bulk of the worth appreciation is as a result of firm’s improvement of a Covid-19 vaccine candidate. Whereas we mentioned a number of the deserves of the Novavax vaccine in our earlier replace (see beneath), on this observe, we check out a number of the key dangers that it may face.

Whereas Novavax entered the Covid vaccine race within the Spring, together with Moderna and Pfizer/BioNtech who’ve now began rolling out their vaccines, the corporate has confronted delays in its timeline. The primary readouts from its section 3 trials are anticipated round Q1 2021 – probably one quarter behind the entrance runners. Solely after these outcomes can be found will the corporate have the ability to file for emergency approval and roll out its vaccine. Whereas this is probably not a giant deal contemplating that there’s sufficient room for a number of Covid vaccines, Novavax would possibly miss out on comparatively extra profitable orders from developed markets. As an example, the U.S. is now anticipated to extend its order for Pfizer’s vaccine to a different 100 million doses.

Margins for the vaccine may be a priority. Novavax’s vaccine is predicated on subunits – basically utilizing a fraction of the virus – and the manufacturing course of is outwardly extra advanced in comparison with the tactic utilized in messenger RNA vaccines together with Moderna’s.  This might probably make the Novavax vaccine costlier to fabricate. Based mostly on a provide settlement with the U.S. authorities, the Novavax vaccine might be priced at about $16 per dose, beneath the $19.50 for Pfizer’s vaccine and as a lot as $37 per dose for Moderna’s. The possibly extra advanced manufacturing course of and decrease costs may imply that margins may be decrease.

[Updated 12/2/2020] Does Novavax Covid Vaccine Nonetheless Matter?

Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) inventory noticed some volatility after the corporate stated that it had rescheduled its Part-3 medical trial within the US, indicating that it may start within the coming weeks, as an alternative of beginning in November. This marks the second time that the corporate has delayed its U.S. trials, amid some challenges with scaling up manufacturing. Whereas the corporate at the moment has late-stage trials underway within the U.Okay, with a readout anticipated in Q1 2021, Novavax considerably trails frontrunners Pfizer and Moderna who’ve proven extraordinarily excessive efficacy charges of roughly 95% and have already utilized for emergency approval with the U.S. FDA. Contemplating that the Novavax vaccine may very well be a minimum of one quarter behind the frontrunners, will there be a spot available in the market for the Novavax vaccine even when it proves protected and efficient and wins regulatory approval? We imagine the reply is sure, for a number of causes.

Whereas the Novavax vaccine would possibly arrive later than anticipated, it nonetheless holds promise. Firstly, primarily based on information from early trials there are indicators that it may be extremely efficient. For instance, the antibody responses for the Novavax vaccine had been meaningfully stronger than different vaccines which were reported at the moment, per information from its Australian trials that had been obtainable in August. [] The vaccine also needs to be simpler to distribute, because it solely must be saved at refrigerated temperatures, in contrast to Pfizer’s vaccine which must be saved at ultra-cold temperatures.  Novavax’s vaccine may also be extra fairly priced. Based mostly on a provide cope with the U.S. authorities, the vaccine’s value is estimated to be about $16 per dose, in comparison with as a lot as $37 per dose for Moderna’s vaccine and $19.50 for Pfizer’s. If all goes nicely, Novavax may additionally scale up manufacturing pretty rapidly. In September Novavax reached an settlement with the Serum Institute of India, one of many largest vaccine producers on this planet, boosting the corporate’s capability to as a lot as 2 billion doses a yr ranging from mid-2021. []

Novavax’s vaccine may additionally emerge fashionable in low and middle-income markets. Whereas the Oxford-AstraZeneca’s vaccine – which is prone to be priced at a couple of {dollars} per dose – is seen as key to combating the pandemic in rising markets, it now faces questions relating to the best way section 3 trials had been dealt with, probably leading to delays and apprehension amongst governments. This might make the Novavax vaccine – which may be produced at scale and simply distributed – fashionable if the pricing is suitably adjusted.

[Updated 11/4/2020] Covid-19 Vaccine shares

Our indicative theme of Covid-19 Vaccine shares – which features a numerous set of U.S.-based pharma and biotech firms creating Covid vaccines – is up by about 560% year-to-date, on an equally weighted foundation, in comparison with the S&P 500 which has gained nearly 4% over the identical interval. Whereas most vaccine shares declined final week, amid a broader sell-off within the markets, they’re prone to come again into the highlight as efficacy information from late-stage trials is anticipated from frontrunners Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) within the coming weeks. Beneath is a little more on the businesses in our theme of Coronavirus Vaccine shares and their relative efficiency.

Novavax (NVAX), a vaccine improvement firm, started late-stage trials of its Covid vaccine within the U.Okay in September, and large-scale section 3 trials are on account of start within the U.S. and Mexico this month. Whereas the corporate doesn’t have another merchandise available on the market but, its flu vaccine NanoFlu may very well be prepared for potential FDA approval. The corporate has obtained about $1.6 billion in funding from the Federal authorities. The inventory has soared 2,000% year-to-date.


Moderna (MRNA) , a clinical-stage biotech firm, is finishing up section 3 trials of its Covid-19 vaccine, finishing enrollment of 30,000 contributors. The corporate is prone to have information on whether or not its vaccine works or not by this month, and has famous that it could search emergency approval from the FDA if the vaccine is a minimum of 70% efficient. The inventory is up 253% this yr.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): In contrast to most different vaccine candidates, that are prone to require two photographs, J&J is concentrating on a single-dose vaccine. Whereas the corporate needed to pause trials in mid-October after an sickness was reported in a volunteer, the corporate is now making ready to renew trials.  The inventory is down by -5.1% this yr.

Pfizer (PFE) is working with German companion BioNTech on a Covid-19 vaccine. The corporate is prone to have efficacy information from late-stage trials obtainable shortly. The corporate may provide about 40 million doses in the US in 2020 if the info is constructive and regulators approve the vaccine. The inventory is down by about -7.6% this yr.

Whereas Vaxart might have moved quite a bit, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities that may provide engaging buying and selling alternatives. For instance, you’ll be stunned how counter-intuitive the inventory valuation is for Pfizer vs Merck.

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