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Tesla inventory upgraded after 'paradigm changer' supply numbers – MarketWatch

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Tesla Inc. inventory rallied Monday after just a few Wall Road analysts praised the Silicon Valley electric-car maker’s above-consensus gross sales, together with an improve from Wedbush Securities.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives on Sunday upgraded Tesla inventory to the equal of purchase, from impartial, and raised his value goal on the inventory to $1,000, from $950. That means an upside of greater than 40% over Monday costs. Ives raised his long-term “bull case” on Tesla to $1,300.

“In our opinion the 1Q supply numbers launched on Friday was a paradigm changer,” he mentioned in a be aware.

Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries, its proxy for gross sales, on Friday, saying it offered 184,800 autos, blowing previous the FactSet consensus of 168,000. The Silicon Valley electric-vehicle maker mentioned it produced simply over 180,000 autos within the interval in what Ives, in a earlier be aware, referred to as a “drop the mic” quantity.

“We now imagine Tesla may exceed 850k deliveries for the 12 months with 900k a stretch objective, regardless of the chip scarcity and numerous provide chain points lingering throughout the auto sector,” Ives mentioned Sunday. He added “eye popping supply numbers popping out of China can’t be ignored with the trajectory on tempo to characterize ~40% of deliveries for Musk & Co. by 2022.”

Ives was not alone in praising Tesla’s gross sales for the quarter. Analysts at JPMorgan raised their value goal on Tesla shares to $155, from $135, and tweaked increased their estimates for the corporate’s first-quarter revenue and yearly gross sales.

JPMorgan mentioned it expects whole deliveries of 800,000 Tesla autos this 12 months, 1 million in 2022, and 1.23 million in 2023, “which is modestly beneath” consensus estimates resulting from “rising competitors,” the analysts mentioned.

They forecast first-quarter per-share earnings of 90 cents a share, up from a earlier EPS expectation of 84 cents a share and in contrast with FactSet consensus of an adjusted EPS of 93 cents a share within the quarter.

Jeffrey Osborne at Cowen highlighted Tesla’s first-quarter manufacturing numbers. “We had been happy to see manufacturing at 180,338 for the quarter, suggesting that the lingering semiconductor scarcity plaguing different auto OEMs just isn’t affecting Tesla in an enormous approach regardless of the 2 shutdowns at Fremont in February,” he mentioned.

Osborne additionally raised his value goal on the inventory, to $573 from $545, and stored his ranking on the share on the equal of maintain.

Joseph Spak at RBC Securities additionally tweaked his expectations for Tesla’s first-quarter outcomes. He moved his income expectations decrease, to $10.5 billion from $10.8 billion, “totally on decrease (Mannequin S/Mannequin X) deliveries.” His expectations for adjusted EPS moved decrease as effectively, to 88 cents from 97 cents.

The “midterm debate” between bulls and bears on Tesla is more likely to proceed, he mentioned.

Analysts at B. of A. additionally struck a extra cautious be aware, highlighting that whereas gross sales greater than doubled year-over-year, they rose nearly 2% quarter-on-quarter.

“And whereas this may increasingly have been dragged down by transitory dynamics just like the next-generation Mannequin S launch, we imagine a burden of proof stays for the corporate (given its substantial market cap and valuation premium) in demonstrating that it will probably proceed to drive accelerated progress,” the B. of A. analysts, led by John Murphy, mentioned of their be aware.

Tesla’s capability “to drive additional accelerated progress might be depending on its capability to introduce refreshed (Mannequin S/X) or all-new (Mannequin Y, Cybertruck) product and construct out capability (Austin, Berlin, and many others.), which we anticipate would require incremental capital sooner or later, even past the $10bn in at-the-market fairness raises executed upon in 2020,” they mentioned.

Tesla shares are down 1.5% 12 months so far, however have skyrocketed 623% over the previous 12 months, which compares with an advance of 64% for the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.72%

within the final 12 months.



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